Crypto Market Outlook: Bullish Bias Returns but Risks Remain

In the second half of April, we can observe a shift in market momentum as buyers regain control and prices have finally stabilized after a period of sharp fluctuations.

The renewed confidence has driven the buying spirit that the market has not witnessed in several weeks. Bitcoin, the established cryptocurrency, could break above the 75K level, which had previously acted as a key resistance. The token has built a more consistent bullish structure. If this scenario continues, buying pressure will remain relevant to the market movements in the coming months.

Performance-based Reports of Major Cryptocurrencies

Ripple has been the best-performing cryptocurrency, recording a gain of 8.71%, standing out strongly in the short term. Cardano has also been in positive territory, with a modest gain of 2.23%. It means the token was able to keep pace with the broader market momentum. This signals that the crypto market has seen an upward trend, with prices consistently recovering, forming new relevant levels in the short term.

Examining the last ten weeks, we can see that the market is finally trading above the closing levels, suggesting that the medium-term bias has started to improve. Ethereum recorded a gain of around 18.79%, indicating a potential to recover much faster than the broader market during rallies. On the other hand, Cardano has a price variation of -4.74%, suggesting it has failed to catch up with the current wave of market recovery.

Considering the year-to-date market statistics, we can say that it remains in a negative territory. This suggests that there has not been enough drive to enable a full recovery from previous losses. Solana is one of the most affected assets, recording a decline of approximately -27.77%, while Bitcoin shows greater stability with a variation of 11.49% compared to yearly opening levels.

Bitcoin continues to experience major volatility, recording price movements above $4,000 during the week. The recent surge above 75K confirms that the buying pressure has become relevant in the short term.

Looking at the charts, we can see that the market is exhibiting signs of recovery. However, the positive turn is only to a few cryptocurrencies and does not apply to the entire market.

Examining from a correlation standpoint, we can see that major cryptocurrencies have begun to show a positive correlation with Bitcoin. They have remained above 0.8 levels, reflecting a high degree of alignment in recent price movements. However, the correlation coefficient can change over time.

Cardano is an exception, with a correlation closer to 0.5, indicating that although a relationship exists, its price action has not been fully aligned with Bitcoin’s recent momentum.

It clearly suggests that the bullish bias is transmitted across the market, led by Bitcoin. If this correlation continues, the risk appetite will continue to play a major role in the short term.

Bitcoin maintains a long-term downward trendline

The charts indicate that Bitcoin has maintained a long-term downward trendline for several months. However, the recent price surge has brought the cryptocurrency closer to a potential breakout of this structure. Analysts point out that if the buying pressure continues, it could lead to a structural shift in the chart and create a new upward trend in the coming sessions.

Major Indicators

The MACD indicator maintains a histogram above the zero line, confirming that short-term moving average momentum remains in the bullish territory. On the other hand, the RSI shows a significant increase, approaching the overbought zone (70), suggesting a potential imbalance in market forces and opening the door to short-term corrections.

The key resistance level remains near $84,000, aligned with previous highs and close to the 200-period moving average. A break above these levels could reinforce the bullish bias. $75,000 is the near-term barrier, previously acting as a key resistance. $70,000 is the key support level aligned with the 50-period moving average.

Cardano is stuck in a range

Although Cardano has closed the week in a positive territory, the buying pressure is not strong enough to break the sideways range. If the price remains within the structure, it will be difficult to move in a defined directional move.

Major Indicators:

Both RSI and MACD remain close to their neutral levels, reflecting a balance in market forces. It indicates that the market is in a phase of indecision.

The key resistance level is near $29.72, and a breakout above this level could trigger a bullish bias.

$27.03 is the near-time barrier, a mid-range level aligned with the 50-period moving average. $23.70 is the key support level aligned with the recent lows.

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